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Physics: scaling 2026, assessment & grade cut-offs
official VTAC & VCAA data · 2026 forecastA raw study score of 40 in Physics scaled to 42.0 in the 2025 VTAC report, and is forecast to scale to about 42.4 in 2026. Physics scales up: a raw score is worth more than its face value; at a raw 40 its scaling has stayed about the same since 2022. The 2025 mean study score was 31.7.
Physics scaling: raw to scaled study scoreOfficial VTAC scaling reports 2022–2025, plus the 2026 forecast (a recency-weighted blend of the last six reports).
| Raw study score | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 |
| 45 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 47.0 | 47.0 |
| 40 | 42.0 | 43.0 | 43.0 | 42.0 | 42.4 |
| 35 | 37.0 | 38.0 | 38.0 | 37.0 | 37.4 |
| 30 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 | 32.0 |
| 25 | 26.0 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 26.0 | 26.4 |
| 20 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 20.0 | 20.5 |
Scaled scores between VTAC's published anchor points are interpolated. See every subject's scaling curve and the method and accuracy.
How Physics is assessedDefault weights from the VCAA study design; the calculator lets you edit them.
| Assessment | Type | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Unit 3 SACs | school-assessed | 30% |
| Unit 4 SACs | school-assessed | 20% |
| End-of-year exam | external | 50% |
Physics grade cut-offs 2026: forecastThe lowest mark each grade starts at, forecast from the last three years' official VCAA cut-offs. Typical error is shown as "likely ±".
Coursework Unit 3 school-assessed · out of 120 · forecast state average 66%
| A+ | A | B+ | B | C+ | C | D+ | D | E+ | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 forecast | 111 | 103 | 94 | 83 | 71 | 60 | 49 | 38 | 20 | 11 |
| likely ± | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| 2025 actual | 111 | 103 | 94 | 83 | 70 | 59 | 48 | 37 | 20 | 10 |
| 2024 actual | 112 | 104 | 95 | 84 | 72 | 61 | 51 | 41 | 21 | 12 |
Coursework Unit 4 school-assessed · out of 80 · forecast state average 71%
| A+ | A | B+ | B | C+ | C | D+ | D | E+ | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 forecast | 73 | 64 | 55 | 48 | 41 | 34 | 25 | 18 | 13 | 7 |
| likely ± | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 2025 actual | 73 | 65 | 56 | 48 | 41 | 35 | 27 | 19 | 16 | 8 |
| 2024 actual | 73 | 63 | 54 | 47 | 40 | 33 | 21 | 16 | 8 | 4 |
Written Examination external · out of 240 · forecast state average 57%
| A+ | A | B+ | B | C+ | C | D+ | D | E+ | E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 forecast | 208 | 189 | 167 | 142 | 115 | 88 | 63 | 43 | 25 | 17 |
| likely ± | 7.4 | 8.4 | 9.4 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.3 |
| 2025 actual | 208 | 189 | 168 | 143 | 115 | 89 | 63 | 43 | 25 | 16 |
| 2024 actual | 209 | 188 | 165 | 141 | 114 | 87 | 63 | 42 | 26 | 20 |
Cut-offs change every year with how hard the assessment is, so a harder paper can move every grade together. See the full 2025 grade distribution for Physics →
About Physics
Fields, motion, electricity, relativity and experimental physics, with strong emphasis on applying models to novel scenarios.
- Natural pair with Methods/Specialist for engineering
- Scales up (30 → ~32)
- Best preparation for engineering-style thinking
Typical time commitment: 5–7 hours a week outside class.
Physics questions
What does a study score of 40 in Physics scale to?
In the 2025 VTAC scaling report a raw 40 in Physics scaled to 42.0. ATARtools forecasts about 42.4 for 2026, from a recency-weighted blend of the last six reports. Treat it as a guide: VTAC publishes the real 2026 numbers in December.
Is Physics scaled up or down?
Physics scales up: a raw score is worth more than its face value. In 2025 a raw 30 scaled to 32.0, a raw 40 to 42.0 and a raw 45 to 47.0. For 2026 the forecast is 32.0, 42.4 and 47.0. At a raw 40, scaling has stayed about the same since 2022.
What mark do I need for an A+ in the Physics Written Examination?
We forecast the 2026 A+ cut-off at about 208 out of 240 (likely ±7.4 marks) and an A from about 189. For reference the A+ cut-off was 208 in 2025, 209 in 2024. The forecast is the recency-weighted average of the last three years' official cut-offs.
How is Physics assessed?
Unit 3 SACs (30%), Unit 4 SACs (20%), End-of-year exam (50%). School-assessed marks are statistically moderated against the external exam results, then the study score is scaled by VTAC for the ATAR.